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Emerging market bulls brace themselves for treasury downturn after rally

(Bloomberg) – Emerging market bulls that have benefited from moderating US Treasury yields are bracing for a downturn as political risks pile up. a basket of currencies covered its largest weekly gain since early February. The risk premium on emerging market government bonds fell to 339 basis points against US government bonds, the lowest since February 2020, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Investors kept putting money into exchange-traded emerging markets funds. the rally prompts some traders to reassess their bets. Russian equities, which fueled equity progress last week, may come under pressure as the Biden government evaluates its options to escalate sanctions. The fringe of South Africa, the largest currency producer in the developing world, is particularly exposed to a potentially stronger dollar, Andres Jaime, a New York-based strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note. There is also concern that government bond yields, which have fallen for two consecutive weeks, will return to their first quarter trend, when US bonds suffered their worst defeat since 1980. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it has basketed its trade recommendation. currencies of developing countries after the rapid recovery. “It makes sense to take profit from rallies and to re-engage in market swings, even though we remain confident in cyclical benefits over the longer term,” wrote Goldman strategists, including Zach Pandl and Kamakshya Trivedi. in a note Friday. “The idiosyncratic risks that weighed on emerging market FX in 2021 are likely to continue to generate volatility and create opportunities.” Listen: EM Weekly Podcast: US Yields Relax; Russia, Indonesia Tariffs Apart from Russia, political risks are increasing in Latin America and Asia. Peruvian stocks fell to their lowest level since January after an admirer of Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez won the most votes in the first round of the country’s presidential election. In China, the credit stress facing one of the country’s biggest ailing managers is also weighing on stocks and bonds. Investors will turn their attention to important interest rate decisions this week. Indonesia’s central bank can leave funding costs unchanged while their Russian counterparts soar. President Vladimir Putin will also deliver his annual speech to the nation on Wednesday, potentially revealing new measures to boost the economy through spending. He is condemned by Western officials for the deteriorating health of imprisoned opposition leader Alexey Navalny and the Kremlin’s hacking attacks and actions against Ukraine. The ruble posted the third-largest decline in emerging markets last month. Central banks Indonesian policymakers are expected to maintain their policy rates on Tuesday as the weakening rupiah blocks further easing. central bank bank will monitor the currency to keep it in line with its fundamentals The rupiah is down 3.4% this year, the second-worst drop in emerging Asia policymakers last cut the seven-day reverse repo rate in February , to a record low of 3.5% “With the rupiah under pressure, BI’s desire to maintain external stability means that rate cuts are not possible,” wrote Krystal Tan, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore, in a note. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts a quarter-point rise, although US sanctions “increase the risk of a larger move” China’s central bank will announce a one- and five-year loan. Rime rates on Tuesday Policymakers last lowered benchmarks in April 2020 to support the economy against the pandemic The yuan surpasses emerging currency gains in Asia this year after the Taiwan dollar February The peso is down 0.7% this year, beating most industry peers Taiwan publishes export orders for March and Friday industrial production data South Korea, a barometer of global trade, publishes trade data for the first 20 days of April Thailand publishes Wednesday Customs Trade Figures for Thursday in March The 4.0% drop in the baht leads to losses in emerging Asia in 2021 What else to watch out for Brazil traders will follow federal budget negotiations ahead of an April 22 deadline for president Jair Bolsonaro to veto. expected to show a 10th consecutive monthly increase while declining year on year, economists questioned by Bloomberg The country’s benchmark stock index extended its longest winning streak since November last year Argentina’s economic activity in February may reflect a decline on Friday of industrial and construction activity, halting the nation’s recovery, according to Bloomberg Economics The peso, which led to declines between major currencies last year, is once again lagging behind all global peers to begin 2021 Colombian economic activity in February may reflect a recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels The country’s benchmark equity indicator has seen the largest decline in Latin America so far this year. price data on Thursday, which, according to Bloomberg Economics, may show that the upward trend will continue in the first two weeks of April, February retail data is expected to decline on Friday from a year earlier, reflecting the continued impact of reflects the pandemic, said Bloomberg Economics. is up 3.4% in the past month, the biggest gains in emerging markets during that period South Africa will likely report on Tuesday that headline inflation accelerated in March amid higher fuel prices The rand is down 3.2% this year rose and beat all major global currencies Malaysia to publish inflation data for March on Friday after reporting first positive reading for a year’s consumer price index in February (Adds ETF rule in second paragraph.) Visit us for more of these articles at bloomberg.com Sign up now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source. © 2021 Bloomberg LP

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